SwayBlog

Jonathan Marchessault’s game-changing play may end his former team’s best chance at the Stanley Cup.

Marchessault and Reilly Smith aren’t just two of the original misfits for Vegas — they represent a link between the two teams competing in the Final, and a throwback to a former era of management in Florida.

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A Stanley Cup contender is usually a product of more than one era of hockey. A team is usually built over time, through multiple managers. The Panthers are currently headed by Bill Zito, but before that, there was the Dale Tallon era that started back in 2010 — that not only put some cornerstones in place for the Panthers, but for the Golden Knights as well.

When ownership changed hands to Vincent Viola in late 2013, the new group inherited Tallon as general manager. Soon after, Tallon removed his only assistant general manager and operated a very lean front office. Ownership began to lean on two of their own as the team struggled on the ice — former West Point hockey player Eric Joyce (who declined to comment on this story) and lawyer Steve Werier, both in their early 30s, who both had been initially hired for more behind-the-scenes positions. Joyce and Werier eventually were named assistant general managers and brought with them a group of data-driven analysts and scouts which included Cam Lawrence, Josh Weissbock, Rhys Jessop and Mike Fairman. The group was eventually labeled the ‘Computer Boys’ in an attempt to ridicule their actions, but the name stuck in the public sphere.

The most clueless front office in the NHL fires Gerard Gallant as coach Guess the computer boys ran the numbers and it didn't add up.

— Steve Simmons (@simmonssteve) November 28, 2016

Ahead of the 2016-17 season, to support this new, young group that didn’t mesh with the old guard, Tallon was removed as general manager but allowed to remain with the club as president. Ownership installed ex-NHL player and AHL coach Tom Rowe as GM alongside the new group, which gave the team a more ‘traditional’ leader at a time before the likes of John Chayka and Kyle Dubas were leading clubs.

With the keys, that analytically-inclined front office got to work. Some deals were done to the dismay of Tallon, who frequently voiced it among his staff, including moves made by Joyce and Werier to swap Erik Gudbranson for Jared McCann. Florida stayed active and continued to do work on defense, swapping Dmitry Kulikov for Mark Pysyk. The new-look management also found a way to get out from the atrocity that became Dave Bolland’s contract by sending it to Arizona, along with Lawson Crouse, in exchange for draft picks.

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Besides being active on the trade market, the Panthers’ front office made a handful of signings. Some were extensions, including Aaron Ekblad’s eight-year contract carrying a $7.5 million cap hit that’s still active today. Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck were re-signed as well. So was Smith, who was acquired prior to the official change in general managers. To continue their efforts to bring more stability to the blue line, Jason Demers, an unrestricted free agent, was signed to a five-year contract.

Along with some of those splashier, lucrative contracts was an inexpensive, two-year contract for Marchessault.

“Marchessault was a rare Group 6 UFA, meaning he’d played so few games by age 25 that he became an unrestricted free agent early under the CBA,” Werier said. “Despite being under the radar generally, he was our top free-agent target.”

At the time, Marchessault had just 47 games of NHL experience, primarily with the Lightning in 2015-16. Most of his professional playing time, to that point, came in the AHL. But the Panthers’ front office saw qualities in the tenacious forward that inspired the signing.

“During the free-agency interview window I set up a meeting with Marchy and our owners, and we made it clear we saw him as much more than a depth signing,” Werier said. “On July 1, he was my first call. We offered him a two-year, one-way deal, which we knew would beat the competition.”

Marchessault responded with a 30-goal, 51-point season in his first regular NHL role. That was just the start of his rise in the NHL; he’s proven to be a legitimate top-six-caliber winger in just about every year since. His breakout of 2.41 points per 60 scored back in 2016-17 was exceeded in four of the next five years.

Just not in Florida.

That’s because ownership went back to Tallon after the season. The Panthers missed the playoffs in 2016-17, weighed down by some key injuries that included Huberdeau’s torn Achilles and a long-term injury to Aleksander Barkov. A losing streak in the final stretch of the season ended the year on a sour note. And Rowe didn’t make matters any better; he didn’t bring stability to the front office or behind the bench after he took over midseason for Gerard Gallant. He pushed against the front office ownership had put together, and publicly antagonized his own players.

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With Tallon back at the helm, the changes began.

“Early in the offseason, leadership at that time made it clear they were going to protect four defenseman and four forwards in the expansion draft (instead of 7F/3D) and that Marchessault and Smith would be exposed,” Werier said.

Florida opted to protect Barkov, Huberdeau, Trocheck and Nick Bjugstad along with Ekblad, Keith Yandle, Pysyk and Alexander Petrovic as their eight skaters.

“Everyone recognized this meant Vegas would claim Marchessault but leadership, as was their right, thought it was the best plan,” Werier added. “Could the willingness to expose him have been at all impacted by how he was acquired and the management changes that year? Probably. Regardless, having worked to bring in both players, and having seen them play so well for us, it was disappointing to see that play out.”

At the time of the expansion draft, the public perception was that Marchessault was left exposed to sweeten the deal of Vegas taking on Smith just as his five-year, $25 million extension (signed in July 2016) was set to kick in. The Golden Knights acquired him for a 2018 fourth-rounder and expansion draft considerations.

If that truly was a pure hockey decision, it sure doesn’t look good and not just in hindsight. Marchessault was coming off a 30-goal season, which landed him in the top 25 in the league, while on a minimum salary of just $750,000. While he clearly had a raise incoming after the 2017-18 season, his first with Vegas, it was something Florida could have afforded. The six-year, $30 million deal he signed after a few months with the Golden Knights was not only cost-effective at the time, but still grades out well five years later.

That’s not the type of player to lose for nothing — even to push the narrative of doing so to dump another contract and even when considering Smith’s ‘down’ year on the scoresheet. While the winger scored at the second-worst pace of his career at 1.51 points per 60 in 2016-17, it was an outlier season — one that was sandwiched between a 25-goal, 50-point season and a career-best in Year 1 with Vegas. Even when Smith wasn’t producing as much on the scoresheet, he was still effective on both ends and a top penalty-killer.

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Marchessault and Smith were exposed over someone like Bjugstad. He was coming off a season with just seven goals and 14 points while carrying a $4.1 million cap hit (with four more years left on the contract). Even if scoring wasn’t meant to be a highlight of his game, that’s something Florida had in Smith, even when his scoring slipped in 2016-17.

What may have been the difference? Maybe that Bjugstad was drafted and then extended by Tallon.

Tallon may have technically been general manager at the time of the Smith trade, but it wasn’t a deal he formulated himself. Joyce and Werier proposed the Smith trade (and taking on Marc Savard’s contract which was on long-term injured reserve, before it was common practice to move these deals) to ownership. The Marchessault signing was one of the earliest of the era led by Joyce and Werier. So it’s no surprise these were two of the first players to go.

That’s what makes this look worse than the usual asset mismanagement. It seemed to be driven by spite because it wasn’t the only move made once Tallon regained power. It was one of many that seemed to be an effort to dismantle the team that was retooled while he was punted up to team president.

Dale Tallon des @FlaPanthers: "Analytics took a more important place in the game. We made some mistakes… and thank god I'm back" #NHL100

— Claude-André Mayrand (@CAMayrand) November 17, 2017

The earliest (and easiest) way to start that process was via the expansion draft when both players were exposed. It started with Marchessault getting drafted by Vegas and continued with the Smith trade. That was the first sign that Tallon’s actions were all an effort to put his stamp back on the team, even if it strained the team’s forward depth that the last year had tried to build up.

It continued with an attempt to bring back Gudbranson from Vancouver, which Demers put a stop to with his modified no-trade clause. That was a clear signal of Tallon trying to undo the work of the last year, seeing as he took issue with the initial Gudbranson trade. The defenseman was a drag on both ends of the ice, but he was a first-rounder of Tallon’s and he valued his game. Despite not being able to bring him back, Demers was still moved that offseason to Arizona, in an uneven deal for Jamie McGinn.

McCann (along with Bjugstad) was traded to Pittsburgh for Riley Sheahan, Derick Brassard and draft picks. While Marchessault and Smith became headliners of the Golden Knights’ expansion team, McCann eventually became that in Seattle with a 40-goal season in his second year with the Kraken.

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Tallon was eventually fired in 2020 after 10 years with the organization.

Following Tallon’s exit, Zito inherited some high-end core pieces but has sparked a lot of turnover on this roster. While there have been game-changing trades, like that of Matthew Tkachuk, the Panthers have also capitalized on market inefficiencies.

Lawrence and Weissbock, two from the last era who stayed on for a year, helped recommend a Marchessault-like addition. After not being qualified by the Lightning, the Panthers signed Carter Verhaeghe to a two-year contract that took up just $1 million in cap space. The team was soon rewarded with a breakout season and true top-six-caliber play from the forward.

Now Verhaeghe’s going head-to-head with Marchessault in the Stanley Cup Final. They’re among two of the remaining pieces from that period of Panthers management battling it out in this series.

As for the members of that front office in Florida, many moved on to other NHL jobs. Joyce went to Toronto, Jessop to Carolina. Lawrence and Weissbock, after a season with Zito’s Panthers, signed on with Columbus.

There, as Blue Jackets assistant general manager Josh Flynn explained, “they have a valued voice in our process.”

Not only has there been less pushback over the years to integrate analytical hires, Flynn said, but now “their opinions are treated like a scout’s opinion.”

“I think the more you work with them, the more their opinion becomes valued because it gets proven out over time. … If our analytics people are pushing for guys, or are known to push for a guy, and it turns out well, we’re going to remember that and it will add to their credibility,” Flynn explained. If Columbus doesn’t add that player and they thrive elsewhere, that’s noted too.

That’s a shift from some viewpoints in Florida back in 2017, and it’s representative of the league that’s evolved to include more data-driven thinkers in recent years to gain an edge.

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“Mistakes were made, but that shouldn’t distract from what should be an inspiring story,” Werier said. “We gathered together a small group of really talented people, all in their first opportunities in hockey, and in a brief window of time amid organizational turmoil and in a competitive 31-team league, this group of outsiders succeeded in identifying and acquiring some elite hockey players who would lead teams deep into the playoffs in the coming years.”

And now two of the players this group of outsiders spotted in Marchessault and Smith are one win away from a Stanley Cup championship over their former team.

Data via CapFriendly, Evolving Hockey and HockeyViz.

(Photo of Jonathan Marchessault: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

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